![]() ![]() In the first quarter of 2024, we expect natural gas prices to increase, then drop below 2023 prices. LNG export facilities are planned to come online in 2023 without new facilities, U.S. We expect natural gas consumption to decline in the electric power sector as more renewable electric-generating capacity comes online and overall electricity consumption declines as a result of cooler summer weather than last year. natural gas production to increase by about 2% in 2023, averaging between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d for the year. Dry natural gas production continuing to rise.LNG exports remaining flat once Freeport LNG comes back online Winter weather subsiding, reducing domestic consumption.We expect natural gas prices to decline in the second quarter of 2023, then stay relatively flat for the rest of the year as a result of: natural gas demand, which also contributes to higher first-quarter prices. Resuming export shipments from Freeport LNG will add approximately 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to overall U.S. We also expect the Freeport LNG export facility in South Texas, which shut down in June due to a fire, to resume operations in the first quarter of the year. After a warm start to January, we expect colder winter weather to return, prompting higher natural gas consumption for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors, which causes prices to rise. We forecast the Henry Hub price will average close to $5.00/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2023 both winter weather and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at near-capacity volumes will lead to greater natural gas demand, which will result in higher prices in the United States. We expect prices to stay nearly the same in 2024 as dry natural gas production continues to grow in the United States and outpaces domestic natural gas demand and exports for most of the year. benchmark Henry Hub will average $4.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, more than $1.50/MMBtu lower than the 2022 average. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the natural gas spot price at the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) ![]()
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